The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced at its 2026 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo earlier this month in San Diego that total commercial mortgage origination volume is forecasted to increase 27% to $805.5B in 2026 from the $633.7B expected in 2025. Multifamily origination volume is expected to increase 21% to $399.2B in 2026 from the $330.B expected in 2025.
“2025 was an active year for commercial real estate lending, with strong origination activity across all commercial capital sources,” said Reggie Booker, associate VP of CREF Research. “Many borrowers took advantage of favorable rates to refinance or acquire properties, setting the stage for continued growth into 2026.”
“The CRE lending market showed strength throughout 2025. Commercial originations increased year-over-year during the first six months, and this growth continued in the second half of the year,” said Judith Ricks, associate VP of CREF Research. “The multifamily market experienced similar strength throughout the year, and that is expected to continue in 2026. We believe much of this activity came from refinance and acquisition activity as borrowers were able to take advantage of relatively favorable rates. As a result, we expect this to reduce the amount of mortgage debt scheduled to mature over the next few years.”
Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and SVP for research and business, notes that originations will remain strong all year, especially with plenty of maturing loans needing new financing. He does not expect rates to move much and predicts only one more cut from the Fed this year. He also notes that there is no clear idea of the impacts of tariffs just yet.
MBA forecasts that the 10-year Treasury yield will average 4.2% in 2026. This macro environment and growing confidence that property values have stabilized will support strong origination growth in 2026. Furthermore, although the maturity wall has diminished somewhat, many loans are maturing in 2026 and will need to be refinanced. The steeper yield curve will likely continue the trend where commercial borrowers pivot to shorter-term loans.
There is 17% ($875B) of the $5T of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors that is scheduled to mature in 2026, a 9% decrease from the $957B that was scheduled to mature in 2025. This is according to the MBA’s 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes.
The MBA also released the 2025 year-end ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers’ volumes. Trimont is at the top of the list with $680B in master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services at $568B, KeyBank National Association at $468B, CBRE Loan Services at $458B and Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC at $436B.
