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Count on CMBS originations to increase to $100B+ this year. There has been an upward trend in issuance and lower spreads have generally held, leading to more activity. The market seems able to clear the bonds easily as there is healthy demand in the capital markets for bonds. The CMBS market will be liquid, although the amount of capital deployed will be a function of pricing. Keep an eye out for more competition for institutional-quality assets, although more CMBS lenders will consider office once again. More

There will be an abundance of debt options in the student housing space this year with new lenders entering the game. Many capital providers looking for additional yield and portfolio diversification are opening to new property types, including student housing, which should result in greater lending competition and improved terms for borrowers. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will be active along with the life insurance companies and many banks. More

Hotel lending will pick up this year, especially as life companies, CMBS lenders, regional and big banks return to the space. Also, watch for the debt funds, bridge and private money lenders to continue swooping up market share. The result is more options and a competitive environment for borrowers. There will be an increase in leverage and more available subordinated debt. Terms will come down to the location, borrower and asset. There will be a push toward branded hotels with strong sponsors. Although, keep an eye out for more willingness to lend on riskier deals such as ground-up construction and heavy repositioning, as well as an increase in capital for independent hotels and resorts. More

Keep an eye out for more life company lending this year, as many lenders plan to surpass last year’s total origination numbers. Life companies will try to capture more business by expanding their boxes. Watch for them to be more flexible in the type of retail properties they will consider, moving away from the traditional grocery-anchored centers. There will be a push toward more construction-to-perm and bridge loans as a way to grab yield. Anticipate life companies starting to compete on pricing and increasing leverage. Also, count on more flexible prepayment options. Look for sensitivity around higher insurance costs. The focus will be on strong experienced sponsors. More